M&A Sentiment: Dealmakers Assess the Impact of the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election
Global sentiment on the M&A market has increased slightly since last quarter, according to the Intralinks Global M&A Sentiment Survey.
12 July 2016
Global dealmakers predict that the U.S. Presidential Election will have the most impact on M&A activity in 2016
Global sentiment on the M&A market has increased slightly since last quarter, according to the Intralinks Global M&A Sentiment Survey. This is the first increase in sentiment since the second quarter of 2014. This is surprising in a U.S. election year, however it’s no surprise that North America is the least optimistic. Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) are the most optimistic this quarter, although the survey data was collected pre-Brexit.
Overall, 73% of global dealmakers believe that Hillary Clinton will win the election. Interestingly, only 52% of respondents believe the impact of a Trump presidency on the M&A market would be negative, while 54% of respondents believe a Clinton presidency would have no impact on the M&A market.
Strong U.S. Dollar Keeps North America Hopeful
When asked about the impact of a strong US dollar on worldwide M&A activity, globally:
- 82% believe the impact will result in an increase in U.S. companies acquiring overseas
- 72% believe it will not result in an increase in foreign companies acquiring U.S. assets
- 62% believe the impact will result in an increase in bulge bracket deals globally
So it’s safe to say that globally, dealmakers still see a strong U.S. dollar making an impact on worldwide M&A activity. If the interest rates go up in the U.S. as predicted, that may change how much money is invested overseas.
Global dealmakers said they expect the healthcare sector to have the most activity through the end of this year, showing some slight variation within the regions. EMEA is looking to industrials for an increase in activity, while Latin America (LATAM) and Asia Pacific (APAC) expect energy & power to have the most activity
It’ll be interesting to see how the election concludes and what it will mean for M&A worldwide.
Methodology: The Intralinks Global M&A Sentiment Survey is an analysis of nearly 1,700 global dealmakers.