Q1 2019 Intralinks Deal Flow Predictor: Worldwide M&A Activity Set to Push Higher in the Short-Term in 2019
Do structural imbalances and signs of market stress suggest the current M&A up-cycle may be nearing its peak?
13 November 2018
The Q1 2019 Intralinks Deal Flow Predictor report has just been published. Among its findings: worldwide early-stage mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity rose by 20 percent year-over-year (YOY) in Q3 2018 — the fastest growth in four and a half years — signaling expectations for increased M&A announcements in Q1 2019.
This compares to the first nine months of 2018, which registered a fall of 3 percent YOY in the worldwide number of announced M&A deals.
Based on these figures, and our proprietary forecasting model, the Intralinks Deal Flow Predictor expects growth of 6 percent YOY in the worldwide number of announced deals in the six months ending Q1 2019, led by the Industrials, Real Estate and Consumer & Retail sectors.
Those structural imbalances in 2018…
The M&A market can thank the Asia-Pacific region in 2018. During the first nine months of 2018, the number of deals announced in APAC rose by 6 percent YOY while the rest of the world declined by 7 percent. As a result, the Intralinks Deal Flow Predictor forecasts that for the full year 2018, the worldwide number of announced M&A deals is expected to be around 1 percent lower YOY.
…and warning sign of market stress
U.S. interest rates are rising. Global equity markets are volatile (and significantly below their January 2018 high). Capital flows to emerging market economies are in reverse. M&A valuation levels are 43 percent above their 30-year average. Cross-border M&A and global trade flows are suffering from increasing protectionism. The chances of a disorderly exit of the UK from the EU are increasing.
Find out more in the Q1 2019 issue of the Intralinks Deal Flow Predictor.
Independently verified as a highly accurate six-month forecast of M&A activity, the Intralinks Deal Flow Predictor report is compiled by tracking early-stage M&A transactions worldwide that are in preparation or have begun due diligence.
Along with our forecast of M&A activity for the six months ending Q1 2019, the latest issue of the Intralinks Deal Flow Predictor includes:
- A spotlight feature on the potential of blockchains to disrupt the dealmaking process – hope or hype?
- An interview with Frank A. McGrew IV, managing partner at McNally Capital, on doing deals with family-owned businesses.
- Regional data on how long M&A deals are taking to complete due diligence and their volume of due diligence information.