Q3 2019 Intralinks Deal Flow Predictor: a passing storm?

Worldwide M&A announcements forecast for modest rebound after disappointing start to 2019

20 May 2019

Intralinks Deal Flow Predictor

According to the newly published Q3 2019 issue of the Intralinks Deal Flow Predictor, worldwide mergers and acquisitions (M&A) dealmaking suffered a setback in the first quarter of 2019, with the number of announced deals falling 17 percent year-over-year (YOY) according to data from Refinitiv and Intralinks’ own analysis. As the chart below shows, this was the biggest decline since 2002 and the sixth largest decline in any quarter for the past 30 years.

Worldwide Announced M&A, Number of Deals Largest Year-over-Year Percentage Declines

Bar chart of largest year-over-year percentage declines ranked

The Intralinks Deal Flow Predictor forecasts the volume of future M&A announcements by tracking early-stage M&A activity – sell-side M&A transactions across the world that are in preparation or have begun their due diligence stage.

Our latest report provides our forecasts for announced M&A activity by region and sector for the six months ending Q3 2019.

Modest growth expected

Based on growth in levels of early-stage M&A activity in worldwide virtual data rooms over the past six months, the latest Intralinks Deal Flow Predictor forecasts a 2 percent YOY increase in the worldwide number of announced deals over the next six months (within a range of 11 percent to -5 percent). That’s stronger growth than we’ve seen in the last four quarters.

Sectors leading global M&A activity

Early-stage due diligence M&A activity appears strongest in the Real Estate, Energy & Power and Financials sectors, which we expect will lead the uptick in the number of worldwide M&A announcements over the next two quarters.

Asia Pacific and North America flex the most muscle

The APAC and NA regions are forecast for above-average growth in M&A activity over the next six months, with the number of announced deals expected to increase by around 4 percent and 3 percent respectively YOY. Europe, the Middle East & Africa is forecast for only 1 percent growth, while Latin America is expected to decline by around 6 percent.

What’s concerning dealmakers?

A slowing global economy, increasing economic protectionism, over-hyped M&A valuations, an end to the decade-long era of loose money and European fears of the effects of Brexit on the UK and European economies are all combining to weaken confidence.

Find out more in the Q3 2019 Intralinks Deal Flow Predictor. Independently verified as a highly accurate six-month forecast of merger and acquisition activity, the Intralinks Deal Flow Predictor is compiled by tracking early-stage M&A transactions globally that are in preparation or have begun due diligence. 

Download your copy here or visit our interactive digital site.

Along with our forecasts of M&A activity for the next six months, the latest issue of the Intralinks Deal Flow Predictor includes:

  • The Digitalization Issue: a spotlight feature on how digital disruption is driving global M&A activity in key industries

  • An exclusive interview with Professor Dr. Michael Lamla, head of corporate banking at Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) in Frankfurt am Main/Germany, on China’s outbound M&A aspirations

Philip Whitchelo

Philip Whitchelo

Philip Whitchelo is Intralinks’ Vice President of Strategic Business & Corporate Development