H1 2026 M&A Outlook: Private Equity Sees Opportunity Where Others See Uncertainty

Dealmakers are entering 2026 under a cloud of uncertainty, with the market split over prospects for the first half of the year. Less than half (41 percent) of surveyed professionals expect mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and financing activity to increase in H1 2026, while 30 percent anticipate a decrease, a divergence that reflects a market facing notable challenges after enduring a disappointing 2025.

Beneath this divide, however, lies a striking pattern. SS&C Intralinks’ H1 2026 Global M&A Dealmakers Sentiment Report, created in partnership with Reuters Events, reveals that PE firms maintain markedly greater conviction than their corporate peers.

PE respondents were substantially more likely to expect higher deal activity over the first six months of 2026. Equally significant, they expressed greater confidence in pursuing larger deals than their corporate and investment banking counterparts. This confidence points to a fundamentally divergent assessment of risk in response to expected market conditions in early 2026.

Private equity's bullish stance may also reflect the growing need to deploy dry powder accumulated after several periods of subdued activity. Where corporate dealmakers see complexities and risks that demand caution, PE professionals are positioning for pricing opportunities and strategic openings.

The middle-market inflection point

Against this backdrop of divided market sentiment, one area is currently commanding near-universal attention: the middle market. Nearly half of M&A-focused dealmakers expect to pursue middle-market transactions under USD two billion over the coming months, while only 36 percent anticipate working on transformative deals exceeding USD 10 billion.

This trend signals the potential materialization of a long-anticipated shift toward the mid-market. For years, market observers have predicted a middle-market surge as megadeals have faced increasing regulatory scrutiny and valuation challenges. That moment now appears to have arrived.

"The overriding narrative is there are a lot of assets at the moment that are sitting with funds that need to be sold," Alex Shandro, partner at A&O Shearman, notes in the H1 2026 report. This asset abundance creates pressure for exits at realistic valuations, precisely the conditions that favor middle-market activity over transformational megadeals.

Middle-market transactions also offer faster execution timelines, reduced regulatory risk and valuations less susceptible to market volatility — all conditions that also lean toward more strategic execution. For PE firms holding mature portfolio companies and facing distribution pressures, this size range offers optimal risk-adjusted returns amid ongoing uncertainty.

This preference reflects broader market dynamics observed earlier this year, when global M&A volume declined nine percent, yet value increased 15 percent, according to PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) data. The shift toward fewer, more strategic transactions continues to reshape dealmaking patterns.

Strategic recalibration across the spectrum

While the market's divided outlook for H1 2026 reflects fundamentally different strategic imperatives across dealmaker categories, there are signs that conditions may begin to stabilize as dealmakers across the board expect a resurgence in the second half of 2026, set against anticipated normalizing market conditions. (Intralinks’ deeper look at M&A dealmakers’ expectations for H2 2026 will be released later this year.)

Nevertheless, corporate M&A professionals today are having to confront competing pressures: growth mandates versus balance sheet preservation and geographic expansion opportunities versus home-market uncertainties. Meanwhile, investment banks and advisory firms face workflow and fee pressures as clients extend due diligence timelines. PE, by contrast, operates under more consistent pressure to deploy with limited partners (LPs) expecting returns and funding life cycles, driving greater urgency.

The question facing the broader dealmaking community becomes not whether activity will materialize, but rather who will claim advantage during this period of divergent conviction. Organizations that maintain deal-readiness, operational excellence and strategic flexibility — supported by secure, integrated, artificial intelligence-powered dealmaking platforms like DealCentre AI — will be ideally positioned to capitalize as market dynamics evolve.

Download the H1 2026 Dealmakers Sentiment Report here.